Retailers project low double-digit US import growth

Merchandise imports are projected to show year-over-year monthly increases at least through August as trade tensions with China ease somewhat, but growth will be slower than last year, only about 1.8-3.7 percent, according to three estimates“Retailers are starting to stock up in anticipation of a strong summer,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and Customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF). “Tariff increases are on hold and progress is being reported in talks between the United States and China, so the imports we’re seeing now are driven primarily by expectations for consumer demand.”The NRF projects in the first half of 2019 that US imports will increase 3.7 percent year over year. Merchandise imports are the largest component of the US import trade with Asia. Carriers and their customers are in the final few weeks of annual service contract negotiations, most of which will run from May 1 through April 30, 2020. Carriers and beneficial cargo owners will be looking at both demand (cargo volumes) and supply (available vessel capacity), which are projected to be in relative balance this year in the eastbound trans-Pacific, as crucial elements in determining freight rates during negotiations.